Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.     Niels Bohr, Nobel prize-winning physicist

We must always tell what we see.  Above all, and this is more difficult, we must always see what we see.      Charles Peguy, poet, essayist and editor

Just over a century ago the famous economist John Maynard Keynes wrote his famous essay Economic Possibilities For Our Grandchildren. He made this prediction: Let us … suppose that a hundred years hence we are all of us, on the average, eight times better off in the economic sense than we are to-day. Assuredly there need be nothing here to surprise us. He believed that science and compound interest was likely to solve the economic problem of mankind, the struggle for subsistence. Then he posed a question, what would we do if we no longer had to work day in and day out to survive? It turns out that he was right about the compound benefits of economic growth but his assumption that most of us would have a life of leisure turned out to be very wrong.

Elizabeth Kolbert in an essay in The New Yorker listed several reasons why most of us are still chained to a job. There are so many new things to buy we could not have imagined a century ago. Another economist, John Galbraith, in his book The Affluent Society wondered if all these new products were really necessary. Most people, it seems, believe they are. As the founder of Apple Corporation, Steve Jobs, said: “A lot of times, people don’t know what they want until you show it to them.” Being busy has become a symbol of status. Ironically the most wealthy often work the longest hours. Furthermore, the distribution of income and wealth is grossly unequal especially in America so even in the land of plenty most of us must work just to get by. The lion’s share of all that new wealth and income is held by a handful of oligarchs that run the country.

While noting the unparalleled riches of American economic growth, Galbraith criticized the underlying structures of an economy dedicated only to increasing production and the consumption of goods. He argued that the U.S. economy, based on an almost hedonistic consumption of luxury products, would inevitably lead to economic inequality as private-sector interests enriched themselves at the expense of the American public. Galbraith warned that an economy where “wants are increasingly created by the process by which they are satisfied” was unsound, unsustainable, and, ultimately, immoral. It’s hard to argue with Galbraith about that.

Millions of Americans did experience great prosperity after World War II. Prosperity seemed to promise ever higher standards of living. But things fell apart wracked by contradiction, dissent, discrimination, and inequality. In a multicultural country and a multinational world national unity has proved difficult to achieve. Economist Derek Thompson analyses the changes that have led to our lack of unity, malaise and disappointment in two must read articles in The Atlantic (A World Without Work and The Anti-Social Society).

Years ago the scientist Carl Sagan eerily predicted a dystopia all too similar to what we are actually seeing today:

I have a foreboding of an America in my children’s or my grandchildren’s time—when we’re a service and information economy; when nearly all key manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers are in the hands of the very few, and no one representing public interest can even grasp the issues … When the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and religiously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what’s true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness. (The Demon Haunted World)

So, what would the average American do with the “free time” that Keynes predicted if it materializes? We spend a lot of time online. According to a recent report by Joe Supan at allconnect 85% of Americans use the internet every day and spend an average of almost 7 hours a day online. Social media and video streaming each account for about 1/3 of that time. Only 7% of us fail to use the internet at all. Online shopping is growing at a much faster pace than “brick and mortar” shopping. Online gambling “has gone from a few billion dollars to $100 billion – more than $100 billion and is increasing rapidly” according to author Michael Lewis. Network television, newspapers and magazines are rapidly being replaced by streaming apps. More and more of us are even finding virtual love and in some cases becoming addicted to it. A few years back Think in the Morning reviewed Klara and the Sun by Kazuo Ishiguro, a story about an artificial friend that for some of us is already a reality. That the “tech bros” most associated with Artificial Intelligence (Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg and Jeff Bezos et al) have cozied up to the new President is not surprising given his penchant for “alternative facts.”

As we descend into virtual mania the risk is that we self-select and divide into competing camps spawning even more division and conflict. And it’s not just in America. Seven EU Member States-Croatia, the Czech Republic, Finland, Hungary, Italy the Netherlands and Slovakia-now have far-right parties within government. Far-right parties are gaining throughout Europe including France and Germany.

Thankfully the news is not all bad. Derke Thompson provides some hope in his articles.The next wave of automation could return us to an age of craftsmanship and artistry. An example is 3‑D printing where machines construct complex objects from digital design. A digitally preoccupied society may come to appreciate the pure and distinct pleasure of making things you can touch. It’s possible that information technology and robots eliminate traditional jobs and make possible a new artisanal economy … an economy geared around self-expression, where people would do artistic things with their time.

While technology takes over some jobs it can create jobs too. “A constellation of Internet-enabled companies matches available workers with quick jobs, most prominently including Uber (for drivers), Seamless (for meal deliverers), Homejoy (for house cleaners), and TaskRabbit (for just about anyone else). And online markets like Craigslist and eBay have likewise made it easier for people to take on small independent projects, such as  furniture refurbishing. (Thompson, A World Without Work). 

How our rapid march toward a new world of robots, artificial intelligence, and a widespread virtual society will unfold and where it will end I will not be foolish enough to say. What I will say is that it’s happening and it’s unstoppable. So buckle up. At this particular moment given the results of our recent election I must admit that I’m full of worry for my grandchildren. Yet, I can’t get those words of Keynes out of my mind. Maybe, just maybe, the old bugger is right.